Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-03 221.950982 268.436399 325.485316 401.772743 502.865382 6.348200e+02 8.245548e+02
2025-08-10 165.635832 218.357558 291.111390 402.489004 575.752057 8.484444e+02 1.341379e+03
2025-08-17 131.875691 184.104028 262.178107 393.883537 625.376825 1.049955e+03 1.992603e+03
2025-08-24 109.678088 159.716292 239.143682 383.659165 664.274684 1.251834e+03 2.835171e+03
2025-08-31 93.805378 141.186698 220.066382 372.740085 695.367400 1.455829e+03 3.928325e+03
2025-09-07 88.208684 137.821768 225.064001 406.736380 832.721740 2.003926e+03 6.984495e+03
2025-09-14 79.844393 128.124954 216.450268 410.645742 904.029640 2.442293e+03 1.079126e+04
2025-09-21 74.095152 122.016644 213.155905 424.774865 1009.138089 3.100210e+03 1.840596e+04
2025-09-28 67.663672 113.641716 203.733543 422.069950 1067.028562 3.662542e+03 2.898876e+04
2025-10-05 65.725207 113.417000 210.824253 461.692467 1279.934703 5.235948e+03 7.075243e+04
2025-10-12 63.272078 111.782745 214.539446 494.079552 1494.460476 7.314648e+03 1.968270e+05
2025-10-19 60.470222 109.025199 215.198070 518.484123 1701.056860 9.975203e+03 6.775452e+05
2025-10-26 57.051968 104.750588 212.091006 532.827122 1890.060268 1.337050e+04 3.780599e+06
2025-11-02 53.419665 99.579775 205.995841 536.444152 2039.436458 1.726498e+04 6.164562e+07
2025-11-09 49.477387 93.267744 196.045328 524.574343 2104.526116 2.067713e+04 4.605428e+12
2025-11-16 45.870827 87.306384 186.078344 509.920225 2147.065289 2.430853e+04 NaN
2025-11-23 42.626979 81.821896 176.540998 494.200569 2174.626930 2.822050e+04 NaN
2025-11-30 42.206886 82.714185 183.972596 543.415595 2682.517534 5.160681e+04 NaN
2025-12-07 40.210007 79.706881 180.312223 549.106961 2901.181630 7.262176e+04 NaN
2025-12-14 38.855066 78.075582 180.249967 569.721884 3278.974296 1.190731e+05 NaN
2025-12-21 36.872669 74.729176 174.765141 565.769279 3446.280888 1.651094e+05 NaN
2025-12-28 36.715041 75.831722 182.530251 623.958543 4346.388996 4.570641e+05 NaN
2026-01-04 36.189208 75.953849 187.403097 671.968823 5299.688466 1.481576e+06 NaN